Wednesday, October 14, 2020

COVID-19 Spread After 9/22 Trump Rally in Moon Township, PA, Part 3

  How many of his own voters does a maskless, crowded, shoutfest called a Trump rally sicken or even kill?

Three weeks ago, Trump had large rally in Moon Township, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. A few thousand attended from western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio & the panhandle of West Virginia.
So far, there's no evidence that #COVID has increased much in these areas:

                                    October 13 map

                                    October 1 map

                                    September 24 map

While there are some increases in Western Pennsylvania, the main hotbed for spread in Pennsylvania over the last month has been the Centre county area, home to Penn State.  Centre county is the reddish county in the upper right hand corner of the map (it really doesn't show up much on the 10/1 map).

So I'm glad to have been wrong about Trump's 9/22 rally in Moon Township.  It might have contributed slightly to COVID-19 spread, but there's no evidence it was yet another super-spreader event.

                                    October 13 map

                                                October 1 map

                                              September 23, 2020

Sadly, Pennsylvania "turned orange" in its COVID-19 outbreak over the last few weeks, probably mostly due to the Penn State Surge.  It has been yellow most of the year, and Allegheny county is still yellow.

                                    October 13 map

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Thursday, October 01, 2020

COVID-19 Spread After 9/22 Trump Rally in Moon Township, PA, Part 2

 How many of his own voters does a maskless, crowded, shoutfest called a Trump rally sicken or even kill?

A week ago, Trump had large rally in Moon Township, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. A few thousand attended from western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio & the panhandle of West Virginia.

So far, there's no evidence that #COVID has increased much in these areas:


COVID-19 spreads gradually. It can take a couple of days to a couple of weeks for the number of cases to increase by much. Here's are detailed Allegheny County maps for 9/23 and 9/30:





So far, there's no evidence that COVID-19 has increased much in the Allegheny County as a result of Trump's recent maskless rally. Which is good so far. Will double-check again next week.